The alcoholic is adamant about not quitting drinking. From the viewpoint of others, the alcoholic will say and do things that contradict logic in a futile attempt to explain his or her drinking.
The alcoholic may devise a method to help herself or oneself. The alcoholic may glance at the clock and attempt to limit himself or herself to a certain number of shots within a specific period, and he or she may repeat this process until the end of the night.
An individual trial has a high chance of success, much like a negative progression betting system. It’s a great way to start! In reality, the alcoholic may be successful on a number of consecutive attempts and think that the expectation has evolved to the point where he is able to limit his alcohol use. He is unable to. In the same way that the negative expectation player ultimately reaches a “Bad streak” and is slaughtered, the alcoholic eventually hits the equivalent of that.
They acknowledge that they are “about even” for the rest of their lives, but they want to win.
Ouch! As you can see, it is not ideal since this individual hasn’t even progressed beyond the stage of denial.
Hold on…if you’re really “About Even” for the rest of your life, why are you even considering utilizing a betting system in the first place? Isn’t it true that what you’re doing isn’t effective? You’ve been gambling for a long time, and you honestly think that you aren’t on the losing end of the equation by now? My goodness, you’re far to the right of the third standard deviation, so why would you want to alter anything?
The reality is that if you fall into this group, you are most likely unaware of your true outcomes. “Oh, I’ve been coming to the casino about two or three times a week for the past five years, and I’ve been playing Craps for about two to three hours each time…and I’ve come out about even,” says the player.
Hold on a second! Hold on a minute. I’m expected to believe your non-existent financial accounting when you don’t even know how many days of the week, on average, you’ve been going to the casino or how long you’ve been spending there each time…and you want me to believe your non-existent financial accounting?
The terrible news first, then the good: I have some awful news for you. Let’s start with the bad news:
The bad news is that you most likely have no clue what your financial outcomes are, but they are almost certainly negative—-which implies that not only are you most likely in denial, but you may not even be aware of what it is that you are particularly rejecting.
The good news is that if you decide to experiment with betting methods and employ them for a long enough period of time, you will almost certainly lose money sooner or later, and you will then understand precisely what it is that you are denying yourself.
Going back to the first point, if you really intended to win, you would not even consider using betting methods in the first place. In order to begin, you must first acknowledge that you have most certainly been on the losing end of a negotiation in the first place. Your second goal is to establish a set of circumstances in which you may (appear to) be anticipated to win, in order to legitimize the gambling that you want to continue to engage in.
In the unlikely event that you must defend your activities to yourself, there is a good probability that you are engaging in behavior that you should not be.